Bing Predicts: Off to the races with the Kentucky Derby

Today, we are launching a new Predicts experience for the upcoming spring trio of major horse races, starting with the Kentucky Derby this Saturday.

The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports

Thoroughbred racing is an exciting–and difficult–sport to predict. For example, the collective wisdom of the crowd captured by the betting markets only managed to correctly predict the winner in 37 percent of all races in the past 10 years. With so many variables in play, including (but not limited to) track conditions, past performance by the horses, the jockeys and the trainers, and even the genetics of the horses.

Regarding genetics, there is a so-called X factor which is a mutation on the X chromosome that makes the heart up to 3 times larger than normal. Many former champions had it, including the legendary Secretariat, and others are rumored to have it, such as last year’s champion American Pharoah.

That said, the Bing Predicts team is using web and social data to algorithmically determine the winners of this year’s major horse races. We’re confident in our science and look forward to seeing how we fare at the races.

Our Predictions

For the Derby, we predict that Nyquist is going to get the coveted rose blanket. Here is our top five, in order:

  1. Nyquist
  2. Mohaymen
  3. Outwork
  4. Destin
  5. Exaggerator

These predictions are still very much subject to change. As we get closer to the race, our data takes advantage of the freshest information. Check Bing to see our latest projections.

What’s Next

We will be predicting all three major spring races, so up next is Preakness Stakes on May 21. Horse racing is a new experience on Bing, so let us know what you think!

- The Bing Predicts team