On June 23rd, Britain, the EU’s second largest economy, will vote on whether to Leave or Remain in the European Union. We are using our unique technology to predict the outcome of this historic vote (Note: due to local referendum regulations, the live prediction has now been removed from the search results page)
Bing Predicts is feature that uses machine-learning to discover and analyse trends from both web and social activity, including other data, to predict the outcome of many types of event. We have been predicting the outcome of entertainment programs like X-Factor and The Voice as well as major sporting occasions including the last Football World Cup, where we accurately predicted 15 out of 16 of the knockout rounds. More recently we have predicted this year’s Euros tournament in France. Our technology has pedigree in Election-based and referendum predictions too having correctly predicted the outcome of the Scottish Referendum in 2014. In the US we’re also offering regular predictions for the Presidential Primaries.
How does Bing do it?
Our technology looks at the anonymized data from our search users and discovers search keywords and social signals that are pro-leave and pro-remain. We then create an aggregated view to compare and finally arrive at a prediction for whether the referendum will result in a Leave or Remain outcome. The sentiment identifier also looks for neutral keywords that could capture a segment of undecided voters.
What is Bing’s Prediction for the vote?
According to statistics analysed so far, as of Monday 13th June, our technology is predicting the result to show 55.4% remain and 44.6% Leave.
Bing’s prediction engine will review the search and social data regularly until the vote on June 23rd, refreshing the prediction answer every 48 hours and publishing at 10am GMT. To see the current prediction simply search for “EU referendum” on Bing.com