Bing Predicts goes back to its roots with a reality check

Fresh off of a successful night of predictions with the Oscars, the Bing Predicts team tallied up the results. Our forecasts netted a 6-for-6 record on the major categories (Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress, etc.) and got 16 out of 19 wins correct.

For those unfamiliar with Bing Predicts, the predictions are the result of applying advanced machine learning algorithms to web data, social networks, real-time data streams, and data from historical precedents.

We started the summer predicting the order of the NBA Draft Lottery, where we were able to call 9 of the top 11 picks within one position of where they landed. We stayed with sports over the summer as we took on the World Cup in Brazil, predicting 15 of the 16 outcomes in the knockout rounds, missing only the consolation round game between Brazil and the Netherlands.

During the fall, we introduced our predictions to the UK as we predicted the Scottish Referendum vote. The interesting take-away was that our models had the odds of a “No” outcome within the 51-59% range from July 1st all the way to the event on September 19th, while popular polls showed a much wider range of values (some over 70%), and the final result of 55% validated our methods.

Back on this side of the pond, we continued our predictions in sports with the NFL season. At the end of the year, we were 67.2% (172-84), ahead of Vegas picks and 3rd in the list of experts as tracked by Fox Sports. We finished the season with a correct prediction of the New England Patriots to win the Super Bowl despite being very unpopular with the Seattle media (our algorithms don’t have allegiances!). Our 24-23 prediction was close to the actual 28-24 outcome. In December we also turned our attentions to the big trends of 2015.

Stay tuned for more predictions.

-The Bing Predicts Team

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